Kinnevik excitement

 Who knew owning shares in a diversified Swedish investment company would be exciting?  Well, it is:

Kinnevik AB (KINV-B.ST): How the Company Secretly Financed an Employee to Buy Its Distressed Assets—and Why Agentic AI Destroys the Rest of Its Portfolio - NINGI Research

clarifications-regarding-claims-in-short-seller-report.pdf

Kinnevik AB (KINV.B-ST): The Company's "Clarifications" Raised More Questions Than It Answered. - NINGI Research

Plenty of share price movement as a result:

So, is the current share price fair?  50 SEK gives a market cap of about 14bn SEK.  From their latest annual report:

Stripping out the adjusted net cash, the market cap suggests we're valuing 28bn SEK of investments at about 7bn SEK.  Sure, the valuations are probably on the high side, but are they 4x what they should be?  Across the board?  Seems like an overreaction.

On that basis I've bought some more shares, not-quite-doubling my holding.  Will I regret it in a couple of days when the Q1 numbers come out?  Possibly.

2025 review & Exor numbers

 Bit late with this, but here's what happened in 2025:

• Bought more Wendel, Exor, GBL and Kinnevik (thought they were cheap)
• Sold SEDY and ISJP (wanted some cash)
• Aviva Preference shares were bought out (no choice)

Total return for the year in GBP: 15%.  Substantially underperformed the FTSE 100 (around 24%), roughly equal to the S&P 500 performance.

Exor has performed pretty poorly, so a quick sanity check that things are OK there:

• 201m shares outstanding in mid-2025.
• Current share price 69 Euros.
• Therefore market cap currently just under 14bn Euros.
• NAV at mid-2025 was 36bn Euros.
• Dominated by listed shares.  As of mid-2025, the big holdings were:

• Ferrari 15.7bn
• CNH 4bn
• Stellantis 4bn
• Philips 4bn
• Developments since then:
• Ferrari down 30%
• Stellantis down 5%
• CNH down 15%
• Philips up 20%
• So current NAV around 31bn Euros.
• There have been some dividends and buybacks, so not sure of the exact discount to NAV, but it seems to be around 55%.  Not too shabby.