Overall I'm up a little over 4%, or 7% with dividends. In the same period the FTSE 100 is down just under 3%, or up about 0.5% with dividends included. However, that 7% hides an extremely mixed bag of investments.
I had only 5 holdings at the start of the year, and I finished with 4. In order by size of holding on 1st January 2014:
- Berkshire Hathaway were 34% of my portfolio at the start of the year, and they are up 34% (in sterling). They're now 50% of my portfolio.
- IS15, my short-dated UK corporate bond ETF, was 25% of my portfolio, returned 4% (mostly in dividends) and is now 24% of my year-end holdings, after I sold a small number to raise cash.
- Tesco has had a shocker - from 18% of my portfolio down to nothing, because I sold on New Year's Eve to use the capital loss in my 2014 tax return. I may buy them back again and hope for a recovery. In all, even accounting for dividends, they lost 40% of their value over the year.
- My NatWest Preference shares were 15% of my holdings, now 19%, returning 10% in capital gain plus 7% in dividend payments.
- BP are down from 7.5% to 7% of my portfolio, returning -11% over the year.
If I'd sold Tesco on 1st January 2014 I would have been up 17.5% for the year. If I'd sold Berkshire Hathaway instead I'd be down 7%.
I now face something of a dilemma - most of my shares look expensive, or at least not cheap:
- Berkshire Hathaway no longer looks cheap, trading at 1.66 times net assets. A rough guide to fair value is 1.6 times.
- With oil prices under $60 per barrel, BP doesn't look cheap either.
- NWBD yields under 7%
- The Yield to Maturity (YTM) on IS15 is only 2.2%.
Ideally I'd like to keep my money in shares or bonds in the UK. But the GBP/NOK exchange rate is better than it's been in years, and cash in Norway pays better than the UK. So perhaps the smart move is to cash in my investments and move the proceeds to Norway. Something for me to ponder in the months ahead.
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