De La Rue - fundamental value >905p per share?

I certainly seem to have picked a few exciting shares to buy recently.  My last 4 purchases were:

• (June) BP.  Down 15% at one point, now 27% above my purchase price.
• (August) Rok Group.  Bankrupt.
• (August) Southern Cross.  90% up within a week of purchase on a takeover approach, now down 13%.
• (September) De La Rue.  Down 20% at one point, now up 25% after a takeover approach.

Today has seen plenty of news for De La Rue shareholders to ponder.  First of all a belated announcement of a "highly preliminary and opportunistic" takeover approach, which drove the share price up to 780p.  Then confirmation that the bidder was Oberthur, a French rival - and the news that they had made an indicative offer of 905p in cash - that was enough for the shares to hit 840p.  Finally De La Rue responded with their justification for rejecting the offer (apparently it "in no way reflects the fundamental value of the Company").

In August I wrote an article about De La Rue where I said they were "worth in the region of 900p".  Perhaps I should become a full-time oracle?  Of course I also said "I think I‘ll sit this one out for now and hope for an opportunity to buy at 600p", which I singularly failed to do, taking a punt at 677p.

So what are De La Rue worth?  Oberthur obviously think >900p, otherwise they wouldn't be bidding at that level.  The board of De La Rue agree, otherwise they wouldn't have rejected the offer.  As for me, my valuation of 900p was based on De La Rue remaining independent - as part of a bigger company, dominating its industry, I can see it being worth a fair bit more.

I don't know how deep Oberthur's pockets are (and it's privately held, so I can't find out) but I suspect they probably have a bit of headroom for a higher offer - say 950p or 1000p, just enough for the board to capitulate and support it.  Whether a deal happens all comes down to De La Rue's big shareholders.  If they've been spooked by the recent quality problems and CEO resignation then they will probably be delighted to jump ship at this sort of price.

As for me, I'd be happy to sell my shares at 905p and take a quick 33% profit.  I'm in two minds whether to bail out now at 840p - but since my valuation was at 900p I suppose I should hold on for that.