Monday, 4 February 2008

Introduction

Who are you?
- I'm Dan. I'm a software developer with no experience in investing. I live in London.

Why are you blogging?
- I've just bought some shares for the first time, and expect to be buying more in the future. I thought it might be interesting to write about what shares I'm buying and why. Mainly so I can come back in a few years time and find out how I ended up owning such a useless collection of crap.

Why should I read your blog?
- No reason :o)

What's your investing philosophy?
- I guess I'm a value investor relying on fundamental analysis rather than technical analysis. I think the market makes mistakes, and if you know better, you can make money from it. I'm sure it's possible to make money from TA, but I think they're making money from people who are less good at it.

So what shares have you bought so far?

RBS.L - Royal Bank of Scotland - 15/1/08 - 399.22p - 40% of portfolio
The history of strong dividend growth, a P/E of less than 6, yield of >5% (if the dividend is maintained) make this attractive. I reckon the banking crisis is unfairly dragging down the share price - I read a very positive interview that the CEO did in December which suggested to me that all the talk of rights issues, cut dividends etc.. is overblown. The acquisition of ABN Amro has undoubtedly left RBS with work to do to restore its liquidity, but it has plenty of assets to sell (a ferry company, Angel trains, a stake in Bank of China) if it has to. So all in all, this looks an excellent opportunity to buy a £6 share at £4.

A few days after buying, RBS went as low as 319p, but it has since recovered to around the purchase price. That didn't really bother me - I'm in it for the long term. I'm never going to be able to time the bottom of the market. If I'd had more money in my sharedealing account at the time I would have bought more at around 350p.

Downside: If RBS have to write off a load of bad debt, they may be forced into asset sales, cut dividend or rights issues. If the economy falters or further problems hit the banking sector, then the entire sector will suffer.

Upside: If RBS can weather the storm, and provided the economic downturn isn't too severe, I think it can continue without having to cut its dividend.

Outer: If RBS remain positive in their annual and interim reports for the next year or two, then I think the share price will recover to around 550p. If not, I think this is the sort of share I could happily hold for the long term.

EDD.L - Education Development International - 29/1/08 - 37.19p - 10% of portfolio
I read something about EDI on a message board, and it caught my interest. I read a few annual & interim reports and looked at the numbers. It looked like it had decent growth, reasonable P/E, low debt, and I think it will be recession-proof. I think online education in the far east has huge potential, and it looks like EDI are showing strong growth there.

Downside: Small company. Currently heavily reliant on the UK market, so government policy changes could have a big effect.

Upside: Seems a decent company quite apart from any growth. I think they have the potential for growth, especially in the far east - I think they're in a growing market, and have the potential to become a market leader, or be snapped up by someone else with ambitions.

Outer: Long term growth or being bought.

ZRX - Zirax - 29/1/08 - 14p - 10% of portfolio
Antifreeze and oil refinery chemicals. What do I know about that? Nothing. The numbers look good - strong growth, P/E around 15, and it has very little debt. Its chemicals seem to be in demand. Provides some nice diversity, and basically I just got a good impression from its financial reports.

Downside: Small, much of its revenue comes from a single annual contract with Moscow City Council (recently renewed for the 5th year in a row).

Upside: Strong growth, little debt.

Outer: Long term growth or being bought, e.g. by Shell, BP...

BDI - Bond International Software - 29/1/08 - 146p - 10% of portfolio
Why did I buy this? I don't really remember. That's a bad sign. I guess I read some reports and it sounded OK. The numbers seemed pretty good. It provides recruitment software, which seems fairly recession-proof, and should be a growth industry. I think I've probably under-researched this one. Smack on wrist.

Downside: I haven't a clue.

Upside: Fingers crossed.

Outer: Let me get back to you.

IEER - Eastern Europe ETF - 29/1/08 - 2136p - 10% of portfolio
IFFF - Far East (exc. Japan) ETF - 29/1/08 - 2181p - 10% of portfolio
LTAM - Latin America ETF - 29/1/08 - 1244.47p - 10% of portfolio
Basically I just want a bit of international exposure. The China & India specific funds have the best rate of return, but I think India in particular is riding a bubble, so I've gone for a broader mix.

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