After 6 weeks or so of writing for shareworld we've agreed it isn't really working out, and therefore I'm returning to this blog as the main repository for my investment thoughts.
One thing I did do to shareworld which I think needs a permanent repository is an at-a-glance portfolio page. I've therefore created one here:
http://www.danieltebbutt.com/portfolio.html
I'll be updating this regularly - it's autogenerated from my portfolio tracking script, so I can re-publish it at the press of a button.
Wednesday, 27 January 2010
Wednesday, 20 January 2010
Berkshire Hathaway convinces me again
After looking at a whole bunch of US shares, I've returned to the only one I currently hold: Berkshire Hathaway. I still think it's cheap, I still think it's a great company, and I see no reason to go elsewhere. I doubled my holding today, making Berkshire almost 17% of my portfolio.
Full details here:
http://www.shareworld.co.uk/index.php/dan/articles-2/berkshire-hathaway.html
Full details here:
http://www.shareworld.co.uk/index.php/dan/articles-2/berkshire-hathaway.html
Saturday, 16 January 2010
US shares - updated
In August I looked at a handful of US shares to see what I might like to invest in once my US$ exposure vanished. That time has now come, and from now on I am ready, willing, and able to invest in US shares. If they're cheap, that is.
In August I thought fair value for the S&P 500 was 900, and it's since risen from 1000 to 1136. At that sort of price I need to be very selective. Every share I looked at in August has increased - some more than others. Amazon seems to be the best performer, rising 50%, and I thought that was ludicrously expensive to start with!
In August I thought Google, Amazon and Coca-Cola were all over-valued - they've only got more so.
I thought Microsoft and McDonalds were cheap, and they've since recovered to what I consider fair value.
I thought GE and Johnson & Johnson were cheap, and they remain so (although they're pricier than they were).
I'll be taking a closer look at some of these in the next few weeks. Johnson & Johnson doesn't fit particularly well in my portfolio, since I already hold GlaxoSmithKline. Microsoft and McDonalds offer a bit more variety. It's difficult to say whether General Electric fits well or not, since it's already so diversified.
In August I thought fair value for the S&P 500 was 900, and it's since risen from 1000 to 1136. At that sort of price I need to be very selective. Every share I looked at in August has increased - some more than others. Amazon seems to be the best performer, rising 50%, and I thought that was ludicrously expensive to start with!
In August I thought Google, Amazon and Coca-Cola were all over-valued - they've only got more so.
I thought Microsoft and McDonalds were cheap, and they've since recovered to what I consider fair value.
I thought GE and Johnson & Johnson were cheap, and they remain so (although they're pricier than they were).
I'll be taking a closer look at some of these in the next few weeks. Johnson & Johnson doesn't fit particularly well in my portfolio, since I already hold GlaxoSmithKline. Microsoft and McDonalds offer a bit more variety. It's difficult to say whether General Electric fits well or not, since it's already so diversified.
Friday, 15 January 2010
Zirax possible de-listing
I must say I'm feeling pretty smug about getting out of Zirax at 5.75p (even though it crystallised a 50% loss). On Wednesday they announced that their largest shareholder (M. Baranov, who directly or indirectly controls 67.2% of the company) has requested a general meeting on which to vote on de-listing from AIM:
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201001130700064528F
In order for the motion to be carried, it needs the consent of 75% of the votes cast at the general meeting. This is AIM rule 41 (you can see all the AIM rules here: http://www.londonstockexchange.com/companies-and-advisors/aim/documents/aim-rules-for-companies.pdf). Note that is 75% of the votes cast, not the total voting rights - if 11% of the shareholders don't bother to vote, then Baranov can get the motion passed purely based on his own holdings.
Zirax's major shareholders (from the Zirax website: http://zirax.com/major-shareholders.html) account for 90.2% of the voting rights, and I think we can assume all of these will exercise a vote, so Baranov will need some support. But I can't imagine he would ask for a general meeting without knowing which way the vote will go - so I assume he has support from Andosov, Pennygold or Metropol, each of which on their own would probably be enough to swing the vote his way.
I have no desire to hold shares in an unlisted company (especially one with Zirax's history of financial mismanagement) so I'm glad I'm no longer a shareholder. If I was, I guess I'd be selling out right now at about 2p.
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201001130700064528F
In order for the motion to be carried, it needs the consent of 75% of the votes cast at the general meeting. This is AIM rule 41 (you can see all the AIM rules here: http://www.londonstockexchange.com/companies-and-advisors/aim/documents/aim-rules-for-companies.pdf). Note that is 75% of the votes cast, not the total voting rights - if 11% of the shareholders don't bother to vote, then Baranov can get the motion passed purely based on his own holdings.
Zirax's major shareholders (from the Zirax website: http://zirax.com/major-shareholders.html) account for 90.2% of the voting rights, and I think we can assume all of these will exercise a vote, so Baranov will need some support. But I can't imagine he would ask for a general meeting without knowing which way the vote will go - so I assume he has support from Andosov, Pennygold or Metropol, each of which on their own would probably be enough to swing the vote his way.
I have no desire to hold shares in an unlisted company (especially one with Zirax's history of financial mismanagement) so I'm glad I'm no longer a shareholder. If I was, I guess I'd be selling out right now at about 2p.
Further shareworld articles
So far in January I've written 3 further articles for Shareworld.
A look at the supermarket sector, keeping an eye on whether my investment in Tesco remains a sensible hold.
http://www.shareworld.co.uk/index.php/dan/articles-2/supermarkets.html
I plan to continue holding Tesco shares, and I'm debating adding a few more to the pile.
A look at Next's share buybacks, where they appear to have unerringly purchased their own shares at the wrong time over the last 3 years.
http://www.shareworld.co.uk/index.php/dan/articles-2/next-share-buybacks.html
Since I wrote the article they've spent another £45m buying 2.2m shares and reducing the share capital of the company by a further 1%.
A review of my portfolio performance over the last two year vs the FTSE 100, taking account of sharepicking, market timing, yield and volatility. Thus far I'm modestly outpeforming on all counts - but 2 years is far too short a time to draw any meaningful conclusions, so the jury is still out on whether I'm skilful or just lucky.
http://www.shareworld.co.uk/index.php/dan/articles-2/2008-2009-review.html
A look at the supermarket sector, keeping an eye on whether my investment in Tesco remains a sensible hold.
http://www.shareworld.co.uk/index.php/dan/articles-2/supermarkets.html
I plan to continue holding Tesco shares, and I'm debating adding a few more to the pile.
A look at Next's share buybacks, where they appear to have unerringly purchased their own shares at the wrong time over the last 3 years.
http://www.shareworld.co.uk/index.php/dan/articles-2/next-share-buybacks.html
Since I wrote the article they've spent another £45m buying 2.2m shares and reducing the share capital of the company by a further 1%.
A review of my portfolio performance over the last two year vs the FTSE 100, taking account of sharepicking, market timing, yield and volatility. Thus far I'm modestly outpeforming on all counts - but 2 years is far too short a time to draw any meaningful conclusions, so the jury is still out on whether I'm skilful or just lucky.
http://www.shareworld.co.uk/index.php/dan/articles-2/2008-2009-review.html
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